Theological Journal – November 12 Important Election Post-Mortem from Craig Keen

Okay, I'm going to try to say this well (and my attempt got really long, sorry):

 I think the standard, knee-jerk analyses of the recent Presidential election returns have not been terribly helpful. They are not simply without merit; it's just that they don't provide much insight into why Trump won the election last time, almost won reelection, and continues to pose a threat (there are rumors that he is planning to run again in 2024, an empty threat, I would have thought, had we not just elected someone the age he'll be then).

 I do believe people voted *against* Biden and *against* Trump, despite their displeasure with the candidate they cast ballots *for*. I believe people voted from a racist sensibility (more for Trump, but for both candidates). I believe people voted because they were swayed by ads or campaign volunteers, and other one-liner-generaters. I believe people voted for candidates because of personalities (e.g., either for or against Trump's mode of grandstanding). However, what makes all of that inadequate to explain the closeness of the race is the increase in votes *for Trump* from groups widely regarded as least drawn to him: black people (men and women) and especially Latinx persons. Trump got 12% of the black vote and 32% of the Latinx vote. Of course, Biden got most of the votes of that demographic, but Trump got more this time than in 2016.

 The one group that came through most for Biden were suburban voters. Not many of these people are among the 1%, but they are generally quite a lot more prosperous than most other folks in America.

Another group that came through for Biden (at least a little better than they did for Clinton) were white working class voters, men and women, though men a little more. The reasons for that are very likely complicated 

So, why the increase in black and Latinx votes for Trump? I think the answer has got to be economic. They found that life was getting better during the Trump administration—until COVID hit. And, given that perception, it is reasonable to expect life to get better in a similar way once there's a vaccine. 

Now, I don't believe that the improvement in the economic lives of those voters was due anymore to Trump's policies than to Obama's. A recovery was underway, when Trump took office. Now, that is a disputable position and I don't claim to have the expertise necessary to know, but that's what I think. Still, there were good reasons to believe that Trump was good for the economic lives of people often shoved aside in America. 

So, the task in America, if we don't want Trump again or someone worse than Trump, is to stop thinking of "black voters" or "Latinx voters" or "Asian voters" (or whatever) as one solid voting block, but as concrete, particular human beings with significant personal challenges. And above all it is important to remember that there are people having a hard time who are not being well served by Republicans or Democrats and that something is needed for them other than Stock Market Economics. (See Andrew Yang, Briahna Joy Gray, Nina Turner, et al.)

(fb 11.12.20)